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12 Month Growth Rate
This chart shows the 12 month growth rate of the S&P 500, using monthly average data. We have spliced the Cowles Commission average on so that the can show over a century of data (raw data starts in 1871). The growth is based on price appreciation only, dividends and inflation are not accounted for.
July's 12 month growth rate (43.66%, annualized) ranked 28th out of 1508 monthly readings. Less than 2% of the nominal annual growth rates were higher.
Note: The twenty-seven months with higher 12 month growth rates broke down as follows: eight occured in 1933-4, seven in 1936, four in 1929, three in 1983, three in 1943, March 1880 and June 1901. The seven months (1/36-7/36) marked the longest period of growth at or above current levels.
12 Month Constant Dollar Growth Rate
This chart shows the 12 month growth rate of the contstant dollar S&P 500, using monthly average data. We have spliced the Cowles Commission average on so that the can show over a century of data (raw data starts in 1871). The constant dollar S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation by dividing by the Consumer Price Index. The most recent value of CPI is carried forward (since CPI is released after the fact). Prior to 1913, annual CPI figures are interpolated to monthly values. The growth is based on price appreciation only, dividends are not accounted for.
The July 1997 constant dollar growth rate was 40.44% (annualized). That's 42nd out of 1508 months of readings. While that's very high, it might not be considered extreme.
Note: Of the 41 higher readings, 9 were in 1933-4, 7 were in 1936, 5 were in 1928-9, 5 were in 1954-5, 5 were in 1879-81, 3 were in 1922, 3 were in 1983, 2 were in 1908 with 4/1899 and 6/1901 rounding out the group.
12 Month Summary
Stock market growth (12 month basis) is very high, but it has certainly been this high before. The stock market has never been able to sustain these levels of growth for long.